I was just attending the press conference of Health Minister Luiz Henrique Mandetta and other Ministry of Health authorities. These are specialists who have all the necessary data to fight the Covid-19 pandemic within Brazilian territory. From the speech they have adopted, which may be cautious for the good of the population, it seems that they are absolutely certain that the number of confirmed and suspected cases will increase much more in the coming days and that the peak of the spread of the disease is still far away.
It is good to note, moreover, that the actual number of cases is certainly higher by now, since the Ministry of Health intends to save testing for the most serious cases only, so among the suspects, only those with the most serious symptoms are being tested (and there are also, of course, people who may be contaminated by the virus, but have not been identified as suspects by the hospital systems, and are still spreading the disease).
The minister also made a general mention of how the culturally determined behavior of the population also influences the prognosis, citing that the Covid-19 did not spread as much as initially expected in South Korea and Japan, due to the absolute discipline and self-control of the population in those countries, while the behavior of European cultures, especially Italy, France, Spain, Portugal and England, ended up creating much easier conditions for dissemination. In the case of Brazil, then, I don’t even want to imagine how our culture of
…could make the work of the health authorities more difficult…
It is not even necessary to imagine that things will get much worse in the coming days, so that the dissemination of Covid-19 will become effectively very serious in Brazil if no firm action is taken and duly obeyed by the Brazilian population. Let’s look at only 4 hypothetical mathematical scenarios based on what is already happening in the last few days:
If the average daily increase (~35%) continues to happen until next month: it goes from 98 cases on March 13 to 1,037,388 cases on April 13
If the average daily rate of increase falls to ~25% by next month: from 98 cases on March 13 to 129,867 cases on April 13
If the average daily rate of increase falls further to ~15% by next month: from 98 cases on March 13 to 13,670 cases on April 13
If the average daily increase ends up happening in arithmetic progression, with the average increase of 54 more cases per day between March 13th and March 17th being repeated until next month: it goes from 98 cases on March 13th to 1,772 cases on April 13th
According to the Ministry of Health, about
15% of people infected with the coronavirus will need hospital admission.
Therefore, if this contingent of people ends up involving thousands of people, they will overcrowd (even more) the already overburdened health system in Brazil. With this,
many people who would otherwise survive may end up dying for lack of adequate care
I am not even talking here about those contaminated by the coronavirus, but also about other people who need hospitalization for other causes.
So, people, it is not the end of the world, no, but definitely, as it is a virus notorious for strong transmissibility,
the situation is potentially dangerous and justifies restrictive measures already now
as preventive measures to stop the disease from escalating like a snowball.